401k

[Unclean]

Whoo hoo! Just checked my 401k this morning, and it's actually showing a positive rate of return. I haven't seen that in what, a year and a half?

 

PERSONALIZED RATE OF RETURN*

Last month 2.18%

Last quarter 4.57%

Year to date 3.15%

One year -4.88%

Three year 1.49%

 

Is this a good sign that the economy is starting to turn around? And how are you all faring these days?

[akaM2]

Mine is finally turning around, time to up the %

[NOFX]

Not really.. the market is going sideways at 8500 and right now appears to be heading in a southern direction. I'm not holding my breath.. however, i did just sell my house in only 9 days after listing it on the market, but I got extremely lucky.

[ZeroDamage]

I think it may be only a temporary uptick. Hard to tell because everything else looks really bad right now.

[MrDuke]

I'd watch foreclosure rates/ DOM rates for homes in your area (we have 9 homes in a 1 block radius in foreclosure and DOMs are averaging 180 and up).

.fx, if you sold in 9 days that's awesome. Its a great time to be buying.

 

Another indicator is cardboard box companies (Uline). Watch their quarterly reports. When it picks up, it usually means the economy is doing better.

 

Everything I'm reading says Spring '10 is the recovery date. I don't believe it... I just can't tell if its earlier or later.

 

Goldman Sachs reported and beat expectations. Other banks that received TARP funds report later this week. They've been hoarding cash to date so I'd compare short and longterm debt reductions against writeoffs and % delinquency rates. If it looks positive then maybe we're heading in the right direction (they'll start loaning money again).

[Jibbajabba]

It could be any time that the stock market and the economy will recover, no one knows for sure. There is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines earning nothing and imho, when the stock market does start to recover it may be very fast because no one will want to miss the boat (pension funds, institutional investors, mutual funds etc.) In a recession the last phase or stage is rising unemployment and we are certainly well into it. Outside events (terrorist attack, war, etc) could always cause a retrenching but if things stay as they are it may even end up being a good year for your 401k by the end of the year. Keep in mind the stock market is a leading indicator meaning it is forward looking. It will start to recover at least six months before the economy begins to show true signs of recovery. If you are in the market in for the long haul remember you want to buy low. The best stock market returns are actually at the end of recessions! Four or five years down the road though inflation may become a huge problem for a number of reasons.

[Clueless]

I have my IRA sitting in cash right now, i'm not doing anything for a while...especially with this nationalized health care thing looming out there which has the potential to collapse our entire economy if it passes...which I dont seem how it could pass, but I would guess that alot of people are waiting to see as well before they start throwing too much money around.