It could be any time that the stock market and the economy will recover, no one knows for sure. There is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines earning nothing and imho, when the stock market does start to recover it may be very fast because no one will want to miss the boat (pension funds, institutional investors, mutual funds etc.) In a recession the last phase or stage is rising unemployment and we are certainly well into it. Outside events (terrorist attack, war, etc) could always cause a retrenching but if things stay as they are it may even end up being a good year for your 401k by the end of the year. Keep in mind the stock market is a leading indicator meaning it is forward looking. It will start to recover at least six months before the economy begins to show true signs of recovery. If you are in the market in for the long haul remember you want to buy low. The best stock market returns are actually at the end of recessions! Four or five years down the road though inflation may become a huge problem for a number of reasons.